Chilly May

The first half of May was not only cool locally, but throughout much of the lower 48 states. Ohio, south Texas and a portion of the southeastern states were the only areas that have seen above average temperatures so far this month. So in other words, about three-fourths of the country has been seasonally cool.

Our area had the largest anomaly of below average temperatures of any where in the country and when you combined that with the fact we are naturally one of the coldest areas anyway, it was indeed a chilly first half of May. Although temperatures have rebounded to more seasonal levels the last few days, it will take quite a turnaround for this month to finish at or above average.

This stretch of below average temperature started in late November and has now continued for six months. This cool pattern will change eventually it is just a matter of when.

Posted by: Daryl Ritchison on 5/15/2008 at 9:43 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink

Last Frost

The cool, and in many places wet weather recently has brought frustration to anyone trying to get things planted this spring.  The most asked question of me lately has been is it safe to plant yet?  

Our average last frost of spring in Fargo Moorhead occurs on May 14, just a few days away.  But of course, the actual last frost date varies greatly from year to year.  Plus, it is a bit unusual for us not to have a night or two close to freezing even after our last official frost of spring occurs. 

This area has seen freezing temperatures well into June on some years, but eventually everyone needs to pull the trigger and take that chance and get the seeds and plants into the ground. 

Considering how this spring has been going, patience will probably be a good rule of thumb for a while longer.  

Posted by: Daryl Ritchison on 5/12/2008 at 10:48 AM | Comments (2) | Permalink

Phenology

Phenology is the study of the timing of natural events.  For instance, what day the trees leaf out, flowers bloom or when a certain bird species is first seen in the spring. 

Growing up in Minnesota one of the phenological events I followed the closest in the spring was when the ice would go out on the lakes in my area.  This year most lakes opened up a good two weeks later then average, with some lakes in extreme northern Minnesota still ice covered. 

Many other firsts of spring are also running at least two weeks later than usual this year.   This has been, to this point, the coldest spring since 1996, although, the spring of 2004 was not far behind.  Last year my ornamental crab apple trees flowered on May 9, in 2004 they did not flower until May 22. 

The way my trees look this week, it will probably be a repeat of 2004 in my yard.

Posted by: Daryl Ritchison on 5/09/2008 at 11:16 AM | Comments (6) | Permalink

Fishing Opener

Courtesy of the Minnesota Climatology Working Group in Saint Paul, a few Minnesota fishing opener climate highlights:

Minnesota's fishing opener weather is typified by partly cloudy to cloudy skies. Three out of four years are free of measurable precipitation. A trace of snow has been reported in northern Minnesota on at least four of the last 56 fishing openers. On at least three occasions, some lakes were still frozen for the opener (as of this writing, this year may make that four).

Opening day temperatures have started as low as 24 degrees at International Falls (1996, 2004), with freezing temperatures possible even in Minneapolis (31 degrees in 1979).

On the warm side, Saint Cloud saw 92 degrees in 1987, and International Falls reached 88 in 1977.  This year looks quite cool with rain possible, mainly in the southern half of the state.  

Posted by: Daryl Ritchison on 5/07/2008 at 11:21 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink

Snowy April

April 2008 will go down into the record books as a snowy and cold month.  Fargo Moorhead received 16.9 inches of snow last month which was the second snowiest April on record.  Some parts of west central Minnesota had between two and three feet of snow in April, with isolated spots reporting nearly 50 inches of snow.  So it will be an April to remember for the heavy snow falling in the area.  

The moisture content of the snow in combination with a few rain showers last month contained 2.33 inches of liquid which is nearly one inch above average.  

Of course you can not get all that snow this time of year unless temperatures are below average and last month finished 2.6 degrees below the long term average.  That made April the fifth month in a row with below average temperatures. 

It was also the first April since 1997 without a 70 degree high temperature.

Posted by: Daryl Ritchison on 5/01/2008 at 8:44 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink

Snowy Spring

Our latest snow event has increased the total snow for the month to 16.9 inches which places April 2008 as the second snowiest April since snow records began in 1885. We missed the record set back in 1904 by just a half inch. 

The late season snowfall was also enough to move this spring season into third place all-time for snowfall.  Since March 1, Fargo Moorhead has received 28.1 inches of snow.  The spring snowfall record was set in 1997 with 33.6 inches falling. 

But there is even more to tell, as our snow total for the season is now up to 59.8 inches, which now places us very close to the top ten for snowiest winters.  Only another 2.6 inches of snow is need to tie us for 10th place. 

So was it a snowy winter?  The answer would have to be no, but was it a snowy spring?  Indeed.

Posted by: Daryl Ritchison on 4/28/2008 at 10:14 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink

Snow Totals April 25 & 26

Minnesota

Posted by: WDAYweather on 4/27/2008 at 4:12 PM | Comments (0) | Permalink

Spring Forecasting

During many of my recent public appearances I have been asked the same question, what is the hardest time of year to forecast the weather? 

My normal response is to say that because of our geographic location this area tends not to get a break in the weather like some parts of the country do during the course of a year, so forecasting here keeps you busy 365 days a year.  But if I had to pick a season I would say Spring.  This time of year brings us rapid changes in weather from temperatures in the 70s and 80s to the 30s with snow the very next day.  We sometimes will have thunderstorms in one part of our area to snow in the other. 

A few years back Fargo/Moorhead was under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch and a Winter Storm Watch at the same time.  So although all seasons keep meteorologist busy around here, the Spring season can bring the most interesting weather of all.

Posted by: Daryl Ritchison on 4/25/2008 at 10:18 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink

April Blizzard

Earlier this month, much of eastern South Dakota experienced blizzard conditions. April blizzards have occurred in this area as far back as settlers kept records.

I have always enjoyed reading Laura Ingalls Wilder's Little House books. One of the many things I find enjoyable about all the books is the fact that weather events are mentioned, often in great detail. The Long Winter is the most obvious book she wrote that dealt with weather during the winter of 1880-81.

Her next book "Little Town on the Prairie" deals with events in De Smet, South Dakota during the following winter of 1881-2 which she describes as an open winter with no blizzards. No blizzard that is until April of 1882 when Pa makes the remark of how odd it was that the only blizzard of the winter occurred in April.

Many South Dakotans were probably saying the same thing in April of 2008.

Posted by: Daryl Ritchison on 4/23/2008 at 10:08 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink

Red

It was on April 18, 1997 that the Red River crested in Fargo Moorhead at 39.57 feet which was the highest crest recorded since 1897.  That year the Red River stayed above flood stage from April 3 through May 17 and, more remarkably, the Red River stayed above 30 feet from April 6 to May 4 that year. 

Since then the Red River has crested as high as 37.2 feet in 2006 and 36.7 feet back in 2001.  Even last year we had water problems as heavy rain caused the Red to crest seven times from April through June with the peak crest occurring in early June a little above 30 feet.  So far this year the Red has stayed below flood stage and very likely will remain there unless heavy rains move back into the area. 

We have had two other years in the past decade with no flooding at all.  A third such year would be nice. 

Posted by: Daryl Ritchison on 4/22/2008 at 5:54 AM | Comments (1) | Permalink