BWCAW Blowdown
Today is the 10th Anniversary of the big blowdown that struck the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness (BWCAW) on July 4, 1999. The straight-line wind event actually started in Fargo Moorhead early that morning. A microburst, a rapidly descending column of air from a thunderstorm, produced wind gusts near or exceeding 100 mph near West Acres early that morning causing significant damage to several apartments near the mall.
That same cell then raced northeastward across northern Minnesota forming a derecho, the term used to describe a long-lived windstorm produced by a line of thunderstorms. As the storms moved into the BWCAW the wind estimated to be over 100 mph at times knocked down millions of trees. The falling trees injured or trapped several campers, plus, the wind in combination with the torrential downpours made it nearly impossible for many canoeists to find or seek shelter. It was certainly a weather event that will be remembered by many.
Posted by: Daryl Ritchison on 7/04/2009 at 6:14 AM | Comments (1) | Permalink
Tags: blowdown, bwcaw, weather
First Half
It will not surprise anyone to learn that 2009 has been a cold year to this point. The average temperature during the first-half of 2009 was 32.7 degrees, which is 3.2 degrees below average. January through June was the 8th coldest such stretch in the past 40 years. In 2008 the first six months of the year had an average temperature of 32.6 degrees, so the past two years have started noticeably cool.
Before 2008, you would have to go back to the years 1996 and 1997 to find such a cold start to a year. Recent shifts in oceanic patterns in combination with the longest solar minimum in nearly 100 years at least two of the reasons for this cool stretch.
Precipitation-wise, the year at least locally in Fargo Moorhead has close to normal as we are currently 1.82 inches above average with our entire precipitation surplus coming in March.
Posted by: Daryl Ritchison on 7/03/2009 at 6:11 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink
Cool June
June continued the trend for cooler than average temperatures in the area. Fargo Moorhead finished last month 2.4 degrees below the long term average making it our 7th straight month with cooler than normal weather.
Finishing only a couple of degrees below the long-term average was quite the recovery as the first 10 days of June average a remarkable 10 degrees below normal including five straight days with a high in the 50s. In no other June since records have been kept has Fargo Moorhead had such a cool streak during the month of June. Fortunately, the rest of the month was quite mild erasing much of the month’s temperature deficit.
Although many areas south of Fargo Moorhead had a very wet June, in Fargo Moorhead 2.93 inches of rain fell for the month, which is 0.58 inches below average. That was our third consecutive month with below normal precipitation
Posted by: Daryl Ritchison on 7/02/2009 at 6:28 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink
Cloud Heights
It is very common for a sunny morning to transition to a partly cloudy afternoon during our warm season. Many afternoons will be dotted with fair-weather cumulus clouds. An acute observer may notice they form at differing heights on a daily basis. How far above the ground the bottom of a cumulus forms is determined by the surface temperature and dew point.
The air temperature will fall approximately 5.5 degrees per thousand feet, but the dew point falls at 1 degree per thousand feet. Therefore, the two temperatures approach each other at a rate of 4.5 degrees per thousand feet. For example, if it was 90 degrees with a dew point of 75 degrees, a cumulus cloud would form around 3,300 feet, but on that same day if the dew point was 59 degrees the cumulus cloud would form at height of 7,800 feet.
So the more humid it is, generally speaking, the lower the cumulus clouds form. Therefore, the east coast of the United States, being more humid would generally have lower cumulus cloud heights (averageing between 3 and 4 thousand feet) then in the plains (average heights between 6 and 9 thousand feet).
Posted by: Daryl Ritchison on 7/01/2009 at 7:51 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink
Location Matters
As your favorite real-estate agent will tell you, it is all about location, location, location. Just as two similar homes will sell for different prices based on location, the weather will vary greatly based on your location as well. You have probably experienced a thunderstorm missing you, yet at the same time knowing it was raining several miles away. One of the most common questions I get during the summer are requests for the location and timing of the thunderstorms that are in my forecast.
Depending on the meteorological set up that day, it can be very difficult to give an accurate estimation because of the random nature of thunderstorms. There are many elements that go into making an accurate forecast, but nailing down the exact location and timing of precipitation can be the most difficult. As our understanding of the atmosphere improves our ability to forecast thunderstorm placement has gotten better, but we still have much to learn.
Posted by: Daryl Ritchison on 6/30/2009 at 7:44 AM | Comments (1) | Permalink
Tags: thunderstorms, weather
Few New Chicks
Much of Canada has been experiencing a very cold spring and summer, even by their standards. Temperatures have been running anywhere from five to ten degrees below seasonally averages. These extremely cold conditions have not been favorable for migrant birds to reproduce.
Recent aerial surveys have found very few chicks and researchers fear that the lateness of the spring of 2009 dooms local birds to a nearly complete reproductive failure. The last time there was a late spring in northern Manitoba this cool was back in1983 and during that year virtually no lesser snow geese reproduced and this year has been even colder. Back in 1983 most species of birds did not nest at all and this year some estimates are for a 90% reduction in new yearlings.
The weather over the next few weeks will be crucial in determining exactly how many geese will pass over our area come September.
Posted by: Daryl Ritchison on 6/29/2009 at 7:52 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink
Friday and Saturday Rain
From the NWS in Grand Forks....
Rainfall totals Jun 26 2009
...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL...
THE FOLLOWING ARE RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE PREVIOUS 24-HOURS AS MEASURED
IN THE MORNING BY NWS COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS AND AUTOMATED STATIONS.
OBSERVATIONS ARE USUALLY TAKEN AT 7 AM.
24-HOUR RAINFALL REPORTS:
***************** SATURDAY (06/27/09) **************
NORTH DAKOTA RAIN
LOCATION (COUNTY): FALL (IN)
LANKIN 9SW (WALSH)............................4.90
PARK RIVER 4N (WALSH).........................4.65
PARK RIVER (WALSH)..............................4.56
REYNOLDS 8E (TRAILL)...........................4.30
EDINBURG (WALSH)................................3.70
EDINBURG 1W (WALSH)...........................3.65
ADAMS (WALSH)......................................3.39
GRAFTON 7N (WALSH)............................3.25
GILBY 0.5S (GRAND FORKS)......................3.20
BROCKET 3E (RAMSEY)...........................2.95
MILTON 2NE (CAVALIER).........................2.90
LANGDON 3NW (CAVALIER)........................2.85
CAVAILER (PEMBINA)............................2.80
HANNAH (CAVALIER).............................2.75
ASOS @ GRAND FORKS AFB (GRAND FORKS)..........2.70
GRAND FORKS NWS (GRAND FORKS).................2.69
HATTON 6 NE (STEELE)..........................2.60
DEVILS LAKE KDLR (RAMSEY).....................2.56
NDAWN @ CAVALIER (PEMBINA)....................2.54
GRAND FORKS (WESTSIDE)........................2.56
ASOS @ GRAND FORKS AIRPORT (GRAND FORKS)......2.49
NDAWN @ MICHIGAN 2W (NELSON)..................2.45
LANGDON (CAVALIER)............................2.49
PETERSBURG (NELSON)...........................2.33
SARLES 5NE (CAVALIER).........................2.25
PEMBINA (PEMBINA).............................2.10
WALES (CAVALIER)..............................2.10
OBERON 4N (BENSON)............................2.00
NDAWN @ HILLSBORO 6S (TRAILL).................1.94
AWOS @ DEVILS LAKE (RAMSEY)...................1.93
NDAWN @ WYNDMERE (RICHLAND)...................1.86
SARLES 2N (TOWNER)............................1.80
EDMORE (RAMSEY)...............................1.73
HANSBORO (TOWNER).............................1.73
BARNEY 1W (RICHLAND)..........................1.53
STARKWEATHER (RAMSEY).........................1.56
CANDO 9NW (TOWNER)............................1.40
PENN 6 SE (RAMSEY)............................1.36
HAVANA (SARGENT)..............................1.30
COLGATE (STEELE)..............................1.29
FORMAN (SARGENT)..............................1.28
LEEDS 6E (BENSON).............................1.25
CHURCHS FERRY (RAMSEY)........................1.17
ESMOND (BENSON)...............................1.16
ARTHUR (CASS).................................1.15
NDAWN @ BAKER (BENSON)........................1.14
NDAWN @ WAHPETON 5NW (RICHLAND)...............1.12
LIDGERWOOD (RICHLAND).........................1.04
NDAWN @ CANDO 2N (TOWNER).....................0.93
MAYVILLE (TRAILL).............................0.92
NDAWN @ MAYVILLE 5E (TRAILL)..................0.82
NORTH DAKOTA STATE UNIV (CASS)................0.78
WEST FARGO 4SSE (CASS)........................0.75
NDAWN @ GALESBURG (TRAILL)....................0.71
ASOS @ FARGO AIRPORT (CASS)...................0.70
NDAWN @ PILLSBURY (BARNES)....................0.68
MAPLETON (CASS)...............................0.66
VALLEY CITY (BARNES)..........................0.51
ITASCA STATE PARK (CLEARWATER)................0.59
NDAWN @ MCHENRY (EDDY)........................0.45
NDAWN @ DAZEY (BARNES)........................0.06
MINNESOTA RAIN
NDAWN @ STEPHEN (MARSHALL)....................3.24
RED LAKE FALLS (RED LAKE).....................3.23
LANCASTER (KITTSON)...........................2.97
HUMBOLT (KITTSON).............................2.74
ARGYLE (MARSHALL).............................2.58
CROOKSTON NW EXP STATION (POLK)...............2.20
PINE CREEK (ROSEAU RIVER WMA) (ROSEAU)........1.75
HALSTAD (NORMAN)..............................1.60
AWOS @ ROSEAU (ROSEAU)........................1.43
FOURTOWN (BELTRAMI)...........................1.38
WARROAD (ROSEAU)..............................1.24
AWOS @ HALLOCK (KITTSON)......................1.17
NEW YORK MILLS (OTTER TAIL)...................1.17
ROOSEVELT 5N (LAKE OF THE WOODS)..............0.94
SEBEKA (WADENA)...............................0.92
BRECKENRIDGE (WILKIN).........................0.90
WHEATON (TRAVERSE)............................0.88
AWOS @ WARROAD (ROSEAU).......................0.79
DALTON 3S (OTTER TAIL)........................0.75
CAMP NORRIS DNR (LAKE OF THE WOODS)...........0.74
LONG LOST LAKE (CLEARWATER)...................0.67
ELBOW LAKE VILLAGE 8ENE (CLEARWATER)..........0.67
AWOS @ DETROIT LAKES (BECKER).................0.66
ROTHSAY (WILKIN)..............................0.66
NDAWN @ PERLEY (NORMAN).......................0.63
PELICAN RAPIDS (OTTER TAIL)...................0.60
ITASCA U OF M (CLEARWATER)....................0.59
WADENA (WADENA)...............................0.54
AWOS @ FERGUS FALLS (OTTER TAIL)..............0.49
ASOS @ PARK RAPIDS (HUBBARD)..................0.49
BEMIDJI (BELTRAMI)............................0.45
SABIN (CLAY)..................................0.44
ASOS @ BAUDETTE (LAKE OF THE WOODS)...........0.42
AWOS @ ELBOW LAKE AWOS (GRANT)................0.42
AWOS @ BEMIDJI (BELTRAMI).....................0.40
WASKISH (BELTRAMI)............................0.39
Posted by: Daryl Ritchison on 6/28/2009 at 2:24 PM | Comments (0) | Permalink
NO 90
The average first 90 degree day of the year in Fargo Moorhead is on June 9th. Not only have we not recorded a temperature of 90 degrees yet this year, we have not even been close. The warmest day so far in 2009 has been 86 degrees. Last year we also experienced cool temperatures during the spring and early summer season and the first 90 degree day held off until July 1, 2008.
We average fourteen 90 degree days per year, but since this wet cycle began in 1992 we have experienced less than 10 such days in greater than 50% of the years. Wet soils and the extra cloud cover associated with the rain make it more difficult to reach the higher air temperatures. Since records have been kept only one year, 1915, passed without at least one 90 degree high.
We could observe our first 90 of the year either today or tomorrow with our best opportunity coming on Friday, but at the moment, the cloud cover may be sufficient enough to keep us from hitting the mark, it will be a close call.
Posted by: Daryl Ritchison on 6/25/2009 at 6:43 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink
Tags: 90 degrees, weather
Thunderstorms this morning
Rotating thunderstorm near Carrington, ND this morning produced an interesting cloud formation:
Posted by: Daryl Ritchison on 6/23/2009 at 11:29 AM | Comments (3) | Permalink
Tags: thunderstorms, weather
Late Tornados
The tornado that hit the northern sections of Austin, Minnesota on June 16 was one of at least five reported across the state of Minnesota that day. Those five tornados were the first ones recorded in Minnesota this year. Only during three other years on record did it take longer for a tornado to form in the state then in 2009. In North Dakota, it took until June 15 for the first reported tornado to develop, also, much later than normal.
The persistently cool weather this past spring and early summer was not conducive to tornadic development and on the few warmer days the correct ingredients fail to come together for much severe weather. A recent shift in the upper-level wind flow over North America has not only allowed for more seasonal temperatures to move into our area, but has also brought many of the other necessary parameters for severe weather to the region.
Posted by: Daryl Ritchison on 6/22/2009 at 10:48 AM | Comments (1) | Permalink
