2009 High school football playoff scenarios

Class AAA (There are still two games left in this class and since there are only five region games, a lot is still up for grabs. Here's my prediction)
Top four earn playoff spots
EAST REGION
1. Fargo South - can wrap up No. 1 seed with win over Jamestown
2. West Fargo - clinches No. 2 with win over GF Central and GFRR loses to Fargo North
3. Grand Forks Red River - plays North in what will likely decided 3 seed.
4. Fargo North - beat Jamestown 7-6 three weeks ago, but still has important game with Central at season's end.
5. Jamestown
6. Grand Forks Central

WEST REGION
1. Bismarck High - definitely the best team in state.
2. Bismarck Century - last two games are Minot and Mandan. Should be good enough to win both, but both present challenges.
3. Minot - win over Dickinson vaults them here. Will rise to No. 2 if they beat Century.
4. Dickinson - beat Mandan, and should lock up a playoff spot with a win over Williston at its homecoming next week.
5. Mandan - dangerous team that has Bismarck High next week. Could confuse the entire situation by beating Century the final week.
6. Williston - winless in N.D. on the year, played a close game with Mandan.

Class AA, West Region
1. Dickinson Trinity - undefeated Titans clinched No. 1 seed by beating Belcourt and shared region title. Gets it outright by beating Bottineau next week or a Devils Lake loss to Minot Ryan.
2. Devils Lake - has inside track on this spot. Only loss to Trinity, has beaten contenders in Bismarck St. Mary's and Beulah.
3. Carrington - did beat St. Mary's but loss to Minot Ryan
4. Bismarck St. Mary's - has a win over Beulah to speak of, but needs to win its last two games to make playoffs (at Belcourt, home vs. Ryan).
5. Minot Ryan - beat Carrington, but loss to Beulah (at DL and StM final two weeks).
6. Beulah - quality win came over Minot Ryan, but still has shot at playoffs. Must beat Carrington next week.
7. Bottineau - out of playoff picture
8. Belcourt - out of playoff picture
NOTE: Nos. 3-6 are all still very much alive for the final two spots. It's a fun race to watch.

East Region
1. Wahpeton - not much of an argument here. WIn over Lisbon next week gives them No. 1 seed.
2. Fargo Shanley - has inside track on No. 2. Beat all other contenders and lost to Wahp by a TD.
3. Valley City - huge win over Central Cass means they'll could be here as they have the three-way point differential tiebreaker over Lisbon and Central Cass.
4. Central Cass - loss to Vally created a mess, but after Valley wins tiebreaker, it reverts back to head-to-head and the Squirrels beat Lisbon.
5. Lisbon - has a two TD win over Valley City, but losing by the maximum point differential (17) to Valley hurt their chances. Beating No. 1 Wahpeton this week would put them back in top four.
6. Fargo Oak Grove
7. Grafton
8. Kindred
NOTES: There's a great race for the final two spots between the Nos. 3-5 teams. It's too bad one of those teams isn't going to be in the playoffs. They're all worthy.

Class A Region 1
1. Linton-HMB - clinched No. 1 seed with win over Oakes. A loss to North Sargent-Milnor in final week would mean Oakes gets a share of the title.
2. Oakes - clinches No. 2 seed with win over LaMoure next week.
3. LaMoure - clinches No. 2 seed with win over Oakes next week. Otherwise retains this spot by virtue of win over NSM.
4. NSM - can get three seed with win over Linton-HMB and help. Otherwise, tiebreaker ensues with LaMoure being third, NSM fourth and Enderlin-MV out.
5. Enderlin-Maple Valley - eliminated from playoffs as even if they won and MNS and LaMoure both lost, all would have three losses. LaMoure would win point differential tiebreaker, leaving the final two, in which NSM beat E-MV straight up.
6. Griggs Barnes County
7. Northern Cass
8. MPCG
NOTES: Another good race between the Nos. 2-4 teams all jockeying for position.

Class A, Region 2
1, North Prairie - clinched No. 1 seed with win over Cavalier. Gets outright region title by beating Langdon-Munich next week.
2, Rugby - comes down to point differential with L-M and Cavalier. Rugby is a plus 12, so they're ahead in the differential.
3. Cavalier - beat Langdon-Munich in head-to-head after point differential breaks it down to two teams.
4. Langdon-Munich - is here unless they can upset NP. In that case, LM would be No. 1, NP No. 2, Rugby 3 and Cavalier 4.
5. Park River
6. Larimore
7. Hatton-Northwood
8. Midway-Minto
NOTES: The playoff teams are pretty much set, the order has yet to be determined.

Class A, Region 3
1, Velva - pretty dominant in its region. Has clinched a share of region title, but No. 1 seed could be lost if they get beat by Harvey next week.
2, Harvey - could get No. 1 seed and share of region title with win at Velva next week. Otherwise, holds edge in three-way tiebreaker over Williams County and Berthold-Our Redeemer's.
3, B-OR - After tiebreaker, B-OR beat WC head-to-head, warranting their spot here.
4, WC - did beat Harvey, but falls here because of tiebreaker rules.
5, Des Lacs-Burlington - could sneak into playoffs by beating B-OR in final week. If that happens, WC moves up to No. 2, Harvey No. 3 and DL-B fourth.
6. Stanley-Powers Lake
7. Garrison-Max
8. New Town
NOTES: This region's field is pretty much set with two games to watch this next week: Harvey at Velva and B-OR at DL-B. This region may have the best playoff field of the four regions.

Class A, Region 4
1. Watford City - Clinched No. 1 seed and share of title.
2. Hazen - A shoe-in at No. 2, could still get share of title if WC loses to Bowman.
3. New Salem-Glen Ullin - this is pretty much set.
4. Heart River - set to play Killdeer for fourth and final playoff spot next week in Belfield.
5. Killdeer - see above.
6. Grant County-Flasher - loss to Heart River in OT put them out.
7. Bowman County
8. Standing Rock
NOTES: Killdeer-Heart River looks to be a good one. Though a trip to Velva or Harvey awaits the winner, it's good for both programs to make the playoffs this year in what was a rebuilding stage for both teams.

9-man, Region 1
1. Napoleon-G-S - meets at South Border (Ashley-Wishek) for region title this week
2. South Border - see above.
3. Kidder County - pretty much set here.
4. Ellendale - pretty much set here
5. Shiloh Christian
6. Strasburg-Zeeland
7. Edgeley-Kulm
NOTES: Exciting match up. Top two teams meet in final week of season to decide region champion. This is a good, strong region.

9-man, Region 2
1. Wyndmere-Lidgerwood - has No. 1 seed locked up and share of region title.
2. Hillsboro
3. Hankinson
4. Central Valley
5. F-S-H-P
6. Richland
7. Sargent Central
NOTES: Two excellent football teams at the top here. I'd say the top four teams are pretty much set for the playoffs and in the right order.

9-man, Region 3
1. Lakota - A three-way tie at the top of the region means Lakota gets the tiebreaker and the top seed.
2. Thompson - Since it started this whole mess by knocking off New Rockford-Sheyenne, it gets this spot.
3. NR-S - had a region title in its grasp until loss to Thompson. Because of that and point differential, the Rockets rocket down two spots.
4. Dakota Prairie - win a few weeks ago over North Border in shootout gives them playoff spot.
5. North Border
6. Drayton-StT-V
7. Four Winds
NOTES: Those top three teams are among the best in the state. They could do some damage.

9-man, Region 4
1. North Star - sitting in third right now, but they're a hot team with a good QB. Need to beat St. John this week to secure top spot.
2. Wells County - loss to North Star hurt, but if St. John beats North Star, Wells County has a good shot at being the No. 1 seed.
3. St. John - goes here by virtue of win over TGU. If they beat NS, than they'd be second and NS would be fourth because they lost to TGU.
4. TGU - can still be the No. 3 seed.
5. Benson County
6. Tri-County
7. Dunseith
NOTES: The top four teams should be set with order yet to be determined. This region always leaves football fans watching in in the final week.

9-man, Region 5
1. Divide County - HAS to beat Parshall-NS next week to get this spot, otherwise they fall to three behind Kenmare.
2. Mohall-Lansford-Sherwood - they did lose to Kenmare, but they pounded Parshall, meaning they have the tiebreaker between these three teams.
3. Parshall - After MLS secures 3-way tiebreaker, Parshall wins head-to-head over Kenmare.
4. Kenmare-B-BC - did beat MLS, but only by six points.
5. Surrey
6. Westhope-Newburg-Glenburn
7. Trenton-Trinity Christian
NOTES: This region is so mixed up. I think most would call it arguably the weakest in the state. Nontheless, the teams play good football and there are some good players here. It's worth nothing that WNG beat Kenmare last week, and if they beat MLS, they knock them out and take the No. 4 seed.

9-man, Region 6
1. Mott-Regent - Like Region 1, they'll meet Central McLean for the region title next week.
2. Central McLean - see above. Winner gets No. 1 seed. Loser gets No. 2.
3. Beach - This could change, but likely won't unless they lose to Richardton-Taylor-Hebron. Then it goes to points between them and Washburn.
4. Washburn - should be here unless something changes drastically.
5. RTH - a good run in an absolute rebuilding year.
6. Hettinger
7. Center-Stanton
8. Wilton
NOTES: The top two are the cream of the crop with MR being the No. 1 team in state, though I'm not sure what to make of the next two teams. I don't see them going real far in the playoffs, but they're capable of winning a game for sure.

Posted by: aarhus on 10/10/2009 at 1:00 AM | Comments (1) | Permalink

Tags: north dakota football, playoffs

Mandan takes two from Beulah amidst greatest concessions experience of all time

Carter Fong and I took in the Beulah-Mandan A's doubleheader Monday at Goldmann Field in Beulah. Since it was my day off, I took a break from job as a sportswriter and Carter took a break from coaching to enjoy a baseball game between two very good Class B teams. Neither one of us brought a notepad or anything, thus meaning coach Fong could not scout nor could I report.

Mandan took the first one and wound up sweeping the Cyclones, who had a heavily depleted pitching staff from playing numerous games in a short amount of time, which also featured a season sweep over Washburn. That's impressive to say the least.

SIDENOTE: Carter and I experienced the single greatest concessions stand of all time. Heeping Taco in a bag: $2.50; 24 oz. bottle of pop: $ 1.25; Everything under 3 bucks including burgers and brats.

Experience it...it will change your life.

Posted by: aarhus on 6/30/2009 at 4:23 PM | Comments (0) | Permalink

Tags: legion baseball, single greatest concessions stand of all time

Riders and Volunteers kick off summer

I love summer baseball.

Not just the Dickinson Roughriders, but being a Class B kid, I love watching the Dickinson Volunteers as well. It also gives me a chance to see teams like Beulah and Washburn...good small town teams that remind me of when I played. I'm looking forward to seeing the Vols or as I call them "Carter's kids."

He's Carter Fong, the Legion B's coach again this year. He does a tremendous job and he's got quite a task ahead of him as he's going to have to balance playing time for 18 kids, though some of them could move up to the Roughriders.

My Section 8 predictions are as follows:

1. Beulah
2. Dickinson Volunteers (beat Mandan in tiebreaker)
3. Mandan A's
4. Washburn
5. Hazen
6. Hettinger
7. Bowman
8. Dunn County.

The Riders return a great group of hitters, but they could lack in quality pitching. They're going to need solid innings out of Stephen Laylock, their ace who just hurled a no-hitter to win the state championship.
Your 12 Roughriders are Stephen Laylock, Ben Herauf, Cole Frenzel, Tyler Steffan, Caleb Burgard, Tommy Peters, Michael Steve, Conner McNeilly, Kyle Breen, Eric Seiler, Mason Schiff and a DSU kid who's a pretty good pitcher I guess.

An early guess would say that the rotation would have Laylock and Seiler at the top. Steve and Breen would probably be the next two with Peters getting time. I expect to see veterans Cole Frenzel, Ben Herauf and Tyler Steffan do small amounts of pitching, especially in mop-up duty or in spot starts, but mostly in relief. I'm not sure where the DSU kid fits in right now.

Based on last year, I could see the lineup looking like this:

Steffan
Laylock
Frenzel
Herauf
Steve
The rest is a toss-up with the speedy hitters at the bottom.

I would like to see it more like this...

Burgard
Laylock
Frenzel
Herauf
Steffan
Steve
Burgard had a great spring and is a natural leadoff. Steffan has pretty good power and the 5 hole is great spot for him, though he's been a leadoff hitter for the Midgets for a very long time.

This will be up to new head coach Andy Emard, who has a variety of things he could do. I'd put all of my trust in him. He seems to know the game very well, and is a good replacement for Cory Hansen, who is taking over as the baseball G.M. in Dickinson.

The Roughriders open up at Rapid City on Saturday while the Vols are already 2-0 with a sweep of Dunn County at home on Tuesday.

Here are my predictions for the regular season:

1, Fargo Post 2 (arguably the best overall pitching depth in the state).
2, Dickinson (killer bats, especially the top 4-5 along with ace Laylock, pitching depth is questionable).
3, Bismarck (Hunter Johnson, Matt Chuppe, Kevin Sanford from Watford City, should be salty)
4, Mandan (gotta love the fact that they only lost a player or two from a team that finished in the top four at state last year, led by ace Reid Jungling.)
5, Minot (can beat anyone with Bollinger on the hill, after that...pitching depth is thin, but a good group of hitters at the top).
6, Williston (should be good, meaning there could be some interesting games this year. I'm not sure what all they have coming back, but they do have Alex Hanson, maybe some more pitching.)
7, Grand Forks
8, Devils Lake
9, West Fargo
10, Jamestown
11, Wahpeton.

It scares me to think that I could be wrong more about the top than the bottom. Those top six teams could really be good and the next three are great sleepers. I don't know if Dickinson has the pitching depth to compete with teams in a tournament like Fargo and Bismarck. I guess we'll see how that develops this summer. I wasn't sure how Dickinson would be after Schroeder and Laylock last year, but Travis Tooley really developed nicely. We'll see...maybe Steve is that guy that can break out. 

No matter what, it should be a great summer of baseball.

UPDATE: After finishing practice on Friday, I found out that Steffan will most likely bat in the 5-hole to protect Frenzel and Herauf. Emard said Burgard will start the year at leadoff, but that Breen could challenge him for it.

Also, the DSU kid's name is Ryan Crossingham from New Mexico. 

Posted by: aarhus on 6/05/2009 at 12:37 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink

Tags: baseball is great, legion baseball, roughriders, sports, vollunteers

ESPN??

If you were over at Dustin Monke's blog, you saw that my column was linked to ESPN's must read stories.

While that's cool, I'm kind of partial to the Vikings page on ESPN.com where they have their latest news and top stories. It's listed as the top story.

I enjoyed writing that piece.

Posted by: aarhus on 4/20/2009 at 5:41 PM | Comments (0) | Permalink

Tags: 22nd pick, aarhus, column, dickinson press, espn, vikings

OFF-TOPIC: Driving in Dickinson

I lived in Fargo and drove there years later, I've lived and driven in Bismarck and Minot, even in Minnesota several times, but never have I feared for my life more than driving in Dickinson.

Today, a paper supply truck or something pulled out RIGHT in front of me on Villard. This is the third straight day I've had someone pull out in front of me on Villard and I'm not talking about room to drive and accelerate. I'm talking about RIGHT in front of me.

I don't know if there are just too many anxious elders, or if it's college kids. I know that all three of the people the past three days were not college kids. One was a middle-aged man, and the other two were elderly couples.

I guess that's what comes from having businesses practically right on the street on Villard where they're so close there's practically no room for a sidewalk.

It can't just be Villard though. When I'm driving up by the mall, people pull out without disregard to the other drivers. It's really frustrating and I wish the police department would watch for this more. I'm surprised there aren't any more accidents then there already are.

Posted by: aarhus on 3/19/2009 at 4:54 PM | Comments (0) | Permalink

Tags: dickinson, drivers, ridiculous