Key Endorsements for Obama Cast Cold Shadow Over Clinton After West Virginia Win. In Other News, Olbermann Delivers Thought Provoking Special Comment to President Bush

In a day that was supposed to belong to Hillary Clinton after her resounding primary win in West Virginia, two key endorsements captured the spotlight and cast a long, cold shadow over Clinton's last gasp push for the Democratic nomination. For a campaign already on life support, the endorsements for Barack Obama by two-time presidential candidate and Democratic heavyweight John Edwards and NARAL, one of the leading political action committees for women's rights, effectively pulled the plug on Clinton's bid for the White House.



Shoring Up Obama's Working Class Problem

The endorsements, particularly that of Mr. Edwards, may give the last uncommitted superdelegates the necessary political cover to endorse Sen. Obama only a day removed from Clinton's 41-point West Virginia win. "The Democratic voters have made their choice, and so have I," proclaimed Edwards to an arena filled with ecstatic Obama supporters in Grand Rapids, Michigan. Edwards stuck with his populist, man of the working class message as Obama continues to struggle gaining traction among low-income and working class voters. Exit polls from West Virginia showed voters making under $50,000 per year favoring Clinton over Obama 71-23%. Similarly, voters with no college education preferred Clinton 75-20%.

How pressing is this problem for Obama? Consider the location of Edward's endorsement, the Wolverine State. According to the 2008 Michigan Manufacturers Directory, industrial employment in the state dropped 5.3% in 2007. This loss of 43,087 jobs was the largest reported by any state over the last two years. The Obama campaign hopes the support of Edwards will bolster Mr. Obama's low support among this traditionally core Democratic constituency that will play a pivotal role in the November battle ground states within the rust-belt, including Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Michigan's 17 electoral votes are a must-have for Obama. Michigan supported the Democratic nominee with 51% of the vote in both 2000 and 2004. Edwards echoed this call for support during his speech. "There is one man who knows in his heart that it is time to create one America, not two, and that man is Barack Obama," said Edwards, in an appeal to the working class voters Obama must win to prevail in November.

The Edward's Effect, VP, and the Math

The effect of the Edwards endorsement will face an early test next Tuesday when Kentucky Democrats hold their primary. The latest poll from Survey USA, conducted May 9-11, had Clinton with a 62-30% advantage over Obama. Much speculation has arisen since the endorsement and will continue indefinitely, that Edwards would be an attractive running mate for Obama. Edwards shot at VP may rest on how well Obama does in Kentucky. If Obama can close the gap or come away with an Indiana-esque performance it would surely bolster a case for Edwards on the ticket.

Ultimately, the selection of Obama's running mate will probably depend on which issue the Obama camp sees as dominating the general election, not how well Obama does in Kentucky. If the economy trumps Iraq, which it has in every exit poll this primary season, the argument will be for a VP who can capitalize on the "It's the Economy Stupid" message, i.e. Edwards, Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland, Hillary, etc. However, if they feel foreign policy and Iraq, and Obama's lack of experience in this arena will make him especially vulnerable to McCain, Edwards and Clinton go out the window and enter figures such as Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA), the former Republican and Secretary of the Navy under Reagan; or Retired Four-Star Marine General and CENTCOM Commander Anthony Zinni. Zinni has been an outspoken critic of the Bush administration and did not support the decision to go to war with Iraq.


Is an Obama-Edwards ticket in the cards? Courtesy the N.Y. Times.

For today, the newly christened Obama-Edwards partnership has stolen the spotlight from Clinton and will be the featured subject in the news cycle, dominating headlines for the remainder of the week. Perhaps most importantly it means that the 18 delegates pledged to Edwards could swing to Obama, putting him only a handful of pledged delegates away from a majority. Here is the math according to MSNBC's First Read. There are 3,254 pledged delegates, meaning 1,627 are necessary for a majority. Obama stands at 1,599 pledged delegates, putting his magic number to reach a majority of pledged delegates at 28. If Edwards' 18 delegates cast their lot for Obama he'd be only 10 short of that majority, a number he'd surely reach this Tuesday after the Kentucky and Oregon Primaries where 103 delegates are at stake.

The endorsements by Edwards and NARAL have cast a final, long, cold shadow over what would have been Hillary Clinton's last trot into the sunset on her once inevitable nomination. The sun is quickly, and will ultimately, fade on her nomination. The reality is that the Democratic Party is coalescing around Sen. Obama and by next Tuesday the Democratic Primary will be over and all eyes focused to the fall contest between Obama and McCain.

Must See TV - Olbermann Delivers Thought Provoking "Special Comment"

While not related, in case you missed it, Keith Olbermann, host of MSNBC's Coutdown, had a moving and thought provoking "Special Comment to President Bush," which concluded by Olbermann telling Mr. Bush to "Shut the Hell Up." The comment was in response to an interview Bush did with Mike Allen of The Politico on Tuesday where he claimed that electing a Democrat in November would result in another terrorist attack on America. In remarks epitomizing Bush's view of the war and his role, he went on to say that he has sacrificed golf because of the war. "I don't want some mom whose son may have recently died to see the commander in chief playing golf," said Bush. "I feel I owe it to the families to be in solidarity as best as I can with them. And I think playing golf during a war just sends the wrong signal," added Bush. The video is in two parts and runs a total of 12 minutes.

Posted by: Josh Swanson on 5/15/2008 at 1:15 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink

On To November: Big Tuesday Win Locks Up Nomination for Obama. What Will Clinton Do?

Barring either an October surprise in May or Fox News giving Rev. Jeremiah Wright his own television program, Hillary Clinton's last opportunity to make her case for the Democratic nomination, for her "game changer," is gone. After a resounding win for Sen. Barack Obama in North Carolina all but erased her gains from Pennsylvania, the Clinton Campaign is cash strapped and has cancelled its public appearances for today as they contemplate their next move, quite possibly an exit strategy.

Even the most seasoned and reliable of political pundits, Tim Russert, declared the race over. "We now know who the Democratic nominee's going to be, and no one's going to dispute it," said Russert, shortly after midnight on MSNBC's election night coverage. Other pundits and talking heads have followed the lead in pulling the plug on Clinton's presidential hopes in the hours since.

Russert was joined in his assessment by the staunchest Clinton supporters outside of Lenny Davis, conservative radio blowhard Rush Limbaugh and former Democratic Presidential nominee George McGovern, who sensed the worm had irreversibly turned. Limbaugh called for an end to his "Operation Chaos" and urged Democratic Superdelegates to declare their support for Obama (as Democratic Supers undoubtedly hang on Mr. Limbaugh's every word). McGovern told Fox News this morning that, "The mathematics [are] against her at this point. I don't see how she has much chance of pulling out the nomination now," after switching his support to Obama and calling on Clinton to drop out of the race.

Adding to an already tough morning for Clinton was an AP story that reported she loaned more money to her campaign during April. The campaign's financial straits were a pressing concern to both the campaign and potential donors. After a short-term fiscal bounce following her Keystone State win, her campaign claimed $10 million poured in, the financial waters after last night looked so dicey that shortly after beginning her post-election speech in Indiana, Clinton somewhat awkwardly threw out a plug for her website and called for campaign donations. In fact, you can go to www.HillaryClinton.com right now and the site takes you directly to a Contribution form to make a donation.

The AP story reported Clinton loaned her campaign $6.4 million over the last month. This latest set of loans follows the $5 million she lent herself earlier this year. The amount included $5 million lent on April 11, $1 million on May 1, and an additional $425,000 on May 5, for a grand total of $11.425 million borrowed from her own pockets to finance her bid for the White House since February. It's often said that "Money Can't Buy Love." Apparently, money also cannot buy a presidential nomination. Mitt Romney could've told Hillary that.

The afternoon didn't bring better news for Hillary as the Drudge Report carried the headline:

CONGRESSIONAL SOURCE: Hillary having trouble finding superdelegates who will meet with her ... 'No one wants to see her today' ... Developing ...

The headline is supported by MSNBC's First Read report that Obama has netted four superdelegates today to Hillary's one. Joining George McGovern in switching her support to Obama was Virginia superdelegate Jennifer McClellan. Clinton did net the endorsement of Rep. Heath Schuler (NC-11) who stated last week he'd back whoever won his district. First Read reports the Delegate Count as PLEDGED: Obama 1,588 - 1,422. SUPERDELEGATES: Clinton 273.5 - 260. OVERALL: Obama 1,848 - 1,695.5. There are 261.5 undeclared superdelegates. Obama is 177 delegates away from clinching the nomination with the needed 2,025 delegates.

Does all this mean Hillary will drop out of the race? Today, Lawrence O'Donnell, the MSNBC political analyst and former West Wing producer, wrote on the Huffington Post and told nationally syndicated talker Ed Schultz that Hillary would drop out by June 15. "A senior campaign official and Clinton confidante has told me that there will be a Democratic nominee by June 15. He could not bring himself to say the words "Hillary will drop out by June 15," but that is clearly what he meant," writes O'Donnell.

So, what will Hillary do? As she enters the twilight of her vailant run for the Democratic nomination, will she do as Dylan Thomas suggests and "Do not go gentle into that good night?" Or, will she take the higher road with a gracious and quiet exit befiting of her stature? Well, she ought to do both. She ought to graciously step aside and give the nod to Obama, then grasp his hand and raise it high in introducing the Democratic Nominee and next President of the United States before going on a barnstorming Democratic Unity Tour to heal any rifts in the party, to keep control of the headlines, and to show America the Democrats are united and ready for November -- with nationally covered stops in Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio.

Posted by: Josh Swanson on 5/07/2008 at 4:28 PM | Comments (0) | Permalink

Where Was Hillary? Absence In Fights That Could Have Curbed Skyrocketing Gas Prices Begs Questions

For the last week, Senator Hillary Clinton has used every interview and speech in the primary battle grounds of Indiana and North Carolina to push her gas tax holiday plan. In a statement released by her campaign last week, Clinton argued that, "Suspending the gas tax will provide real, immediate assistance to American families and for our economy." A similar plan is being pushed by Sen. John McCain, who claims a gas tax holiday would result in an "[I]mmediate economic stimulus, taking a few dollars off the price of a tank of gas every time a family, a farmer or trucker stops to fill up." Senator Barack Obama is the only remaining presidential contender to dismiss the gas tax holiday as an inadequate solution to our growing dependence on foreign oil, calling the plan a "classic Washington gimmick," that would only save the average American $28 over the summer.

Economists agree with Obama. In a recent article by Robert Schroeder of MarketWatch, the reoccurring theme from several well respected economists is that suspending the federal gas tax would not result in a corresponding drop in prices at the pump. "It might seem axiomatic that cutting taxes on gasoline would make it cheaper. But economists also say a side effect of cheaper gas would be increased demand for fuel as more people drive. That, they point out, would put prices right back where they started," writes Schroeder.

While most of the gas tax debate has centered around the impact on our pocketbooks, or lack thereof, what remains conspicuously absent from the coverage of the McCain-Clinton gas tax is any reporting on Clinton's lackluster record on recent legislation related to skyrocketing prices at the pumps. Since 2005, several bills have been offered by fellow Senate Democrats, including North Dakota Sen. Byron Dorgan, that could have provided greater benefits to consumers than the minimal $28 savings this summer at the pumps courtesy the McCain-Clinton gas tax plan (not to be confused with the McCain-Clinton Iran plan). This begs the question, where was Hillary during these earlier fights on skyrocketing gas prices?

Where was Hillary in the fall of 2005 when Dorgan offered legislation that would have provided windfall profit rebates to consumers in the face of skyrocketing oil prices? Dorgan's bill would have placed a 50% windfall profits tax on oil company revenues resulting from the sale of oil at more than $40 per barrel. Any profits used by the oil companies to increase domestic energy supplies would have been exempt. Revenue from the tax would have been given to consumers. Clinton was less than enthusiastic in her support of the bill, conspicuously absent from bill's co-sponsors. The bill failed a procedural vote in the Senate and died in committee. Senate Bill 1631. 109th Congress.

Where was Hillary after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita when Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY) offered legislation that would have imposed a temporary windfall profit tax on oil companies to benefit the victims of the storm? The proceeds would have helped ease soaring prices at the pump following the disasters with the profits benefiting the victims of Katrina and Rita. Again, Clinton was less than enthusiastic, her name conspicuously absent from the bill's co-sponsors. The bill died in committee. Senate Bill 1809. 109th Congress.

Where was Hillary when Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) offered legislation that proposed a temporary windfall profit tax on crude oil. The rebate portion of the windfall profits tax would have gone to consumers, funded programs under the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Act and given tax incentives for the manufacture of energy efficient vehicles. Again, Clinton was less than enthusiastic, her name conspicusouly absent from the bill's co-sponsors. The bill died in committee. Senate Bill 1981. 109th Congress. However, Clinton may have a chance to redeem herself this go-round. Last week, Durbin renewed his call for a windfall profits tax in the wake of record first-quarter profits by oil companies.

Where was Hillary when Sen. Joe Liebermann (I-CT) offered legislation that would have imposed temporary windfall profits tax on crude oil and provided a rebate to each household from the revenues resulting from the bill. Again, Clinton was less than enthusiastic, her name conspicuously absent from the bill's co-sponsors. The bill, like those above that would have benefited American consumers, died in committee. Senate Bill 2103. 109th Congress.

If Hillary really believes the McCain-Clinton gas tax holiday can be a "game-changer", if she really believes that the tax's $28 benefit is as significant as she claims, where in the name of crude oil was she when her Senate colleagues offered the far-reaching legislation that could have curbed the skyrocketing prices at the pump? Hillary was comfortably on the sidelines where she refused to attach her name to any of the bills as a co-sponsor. The bills, which could have curbed the skyrocketing gas prices, died in committee without any support from Clinton. And now she wants to save me $28 this summer? If she really wants to prove her sincerity on the issue and show this isn't a political gimmick or pandering, she must be the first to sign on as a co-sponsor of the upcoming Durbin legislation announced last week.

Posted by: Josh Swanson on 5/06/2008 at 12:55 AM | Comments (1) | Permalink

Baracky!!!

On the eve of the Pennsylvania Primary, a new fighter has emerged and captured the hearts and minds of not only Philadelphia, but of America ...

Posted by: Josh Swanson on 4/21/2008 at 4:14 PM | Comments (2) | Permalink

Obama, Can You Spare A Dime?

To the tune of Bing Crosby's 1932 Hit, "Brother, Can You Spare A Dime," I proudly present the Clinton Campaign's new theme song, "Obama, Can You Spare A Dime?"

Obama, Can You Spare A Dime?
By - Joshua Swanson
They used to tell me
I was the guaranteed nominee.
And so I believed the mob
When there was no Obama around
Or pledged delegates to be found
I was always there
Right on the job.

They used to tell me
I was the guaranteed nominee
With the Oval Office ahead.
Why should I be standing behind in line
Didn't they see the ad with kids in their beds?

Once snipers aimed in Bosnia
I had to run
But it was on camera
Now I'm almost done
Obama, can you spare a dime?

Once Bill built a coalition up to the sky
Minority and Elderly and Labor.
Once I was guaranteed,
Now it's done.
Obama, can you spare a dime?

Once in victory suits
Gee we looked Great
Full of that Ready On Day One dee dum.
Now nine million bucks are unpaid as of date
And I am the one holding the bag!

Say don't you remember?
They called me a Guarantee?
It was a Guarantee all the time.
Why don't you remember?
I'm your nominee?
Say Obama, can you spare a dime?

Once in victory suits
Gee we looked Great
Full of that Ready On Day One dee dum.
Now nine million bucks are unpaid as of date
And I am the one holding the bag!

Say don't you remember?
They called me a Guarantee?
It was a Guarantee all the time.
Why don't you remember?
I'm your nominee?
Say Obama, can you spare a dime?
Say Obama, can you spare a dime?

Posted by: Josh Swanson on 4/01/2008 at 12:12 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink