Will Bush veto the farm bill?

It is intriguing that President George Bush is calling the 2008 farm bill bloated. Thats a subjective term.

Bush apparently is sending out mixed signals over whether hell veto the farm bill, or just wont sign it. This, despite the fact that two thirds of the $300 billion, five-year farm bill is for nutrition.

Meanwhile, the war in Iraq war is costing $10 billion a month -- $520 billion a year, at that rate.

Sen. Kent Conrad, D-N.D., on May 8 told me that everyone seems to be on-board with the bill except the president, and, presumably, some of his top aides.

Conrad, a high-ranking Democrat on the Agriculture Committee, and chairman of the Budget Committee, said Thursday that the conferees are now finished with their work. The bill is expected to go to the floor next week in the House and Senate.Conrad called the process a tortured trail, and noted that one of his key agricultural policy aides, Jim Miller, has logged 3,000 hours on the bill.

The president can sign it, veto it, or let it become law without his signature.

I assume the president is going to veto it, Conrad said. He never wanted a bill to come to him in the first place. When it was clear that he would, he would shift the goal posts.

Conrad says the administration now says it doesnt agree with the fiscal scoring of the bill, even though thats done by the bipartisan Congressional Budget Office.

By law, theyre the ones that estimate the cost, Conrad said.

True, the bill is $10 billion over the so-called baseline spending.

Conrad argues that the $3.9 billion permanent disaster provision that he pushed for in the bill should be discounted, because that amount typically is spent on disasters, without being budgeted for. That represents real reform because under ad hoc disaster bills, those became Christmas trees, and people got payments who didnt have disasters on their whole farms.

Conrad said he doubted very much whether White House staffers have any idea of those facts.

Conrad acknowledged that the bill could become law without Bushs signature, but he doubts it. He thinks there will be a veto, followed by an over-ride vote in the Senate and a strong attempt in the House. He says that would be a tall order in the House, which is dominated by urban interests. He says there is already talk about arranging an override in the House.

The Republican leadership in the committees of jurisdiction in the House are working on the issue, as well as the Democratic leadership. The biggest challenge is among House Republicans who dont have a strong constituency interest and the president of their party is trying to veto it.

Conrad says the only member of the Senate Agriculture Committee to oppose the bill is Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind., who has favored replacing the current farm program with better crop insurance.

If an over-ride fails?

Conrad says the farm law could revert to 1949 law, which would be its own disaster. There could be another short-term extension, which would take the bill into a new administration  perhaps Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. McCain is the most anti-agricultural candidate for president weve seen in my lifetime, Conrad says.

Conrad said theres no way for me to know what impact that Secretary of Agriculture Ed Schafer has had on the process, if any. He says hes talked with Schafer about it, but said it would violate a confidence if I were to say.

I suppose if Schafer really had strong convictions on farm policy and was outraged the president would veto the bill, Schafer could resign in protest. Something tells me that won't happen.

Posted by: mpates on 5/8/2008 at 1:23 PM | Comments (0) | Permalink

Schafer, Conner and the Second Amendments

080406 naajblog

The North American Agricultural Journalists will be the hot ticket among agricultural policy wonks tonight in Washington, D.C.

Both Secretary of Agriculture Ed Schafer and Deputy Secretary Chuck Conner and their wives will attend an event and dance to the Rep. Collin Peterson's band, the Second Amendments, playing at the National Press Club tonight. The group is limiting attendance to about 150.

One of the attractions is that Petersosn, chairman of the House Agriculture Committee, is rumored to be performin the "Farm Bill Blues," an original composition, which apparently has a reference to Conner, the USDA's chief negotiator.

I had the honor of introducing Schafer earlier today. He said the administration is still hoping for a signed farm bill "this year," and noted that if the negotiators are close on substantive issues by the April 18 deadline, that President Bush might accept a short extensions on "paragraphical" details. Failing that, the administration would accept one- or two-year extensions. But they don't want that. Schafer added that no member of congress in their right mind would favor falling back on permanent law -- something Peterson has threatened to do, at times.

I'll let you know if Peterson gets the administration folks to dance to his tune tonight.

Posted by: mpates on 4/7/2008 at 1:17 PM | Comments (0) | Permalink

Schafer, Peterson and the Second Amendments

The North American Agricultural Journalists will be the hot ticket among agricultural policy wonks tonight in Washington, D.C.

Both Secretary of Agriculture Ed Schafer and Deputy Secretary Chuck Conner and their wives will attend an event and dance to the Rep. Collin Peterson's band, the Second Amendments, playing at the National Press Club tonight. The group is limiting attendance to about 150.

Oen of the attractions is that Petersosn, chairman of the House Agriculture Committee, is rumored to be performin the "Farm Bill Blues," an original composition, which apparently has a reference to Conner, the USDA's chief negotiator.

I had the honor of introducing Schafer earlier today. He said the administration is still hoping for a signed farm bill "this year," and noted that if the negotiators are close on substantive issues by the April 18 deadline, that President Bush might accept a short extensions on "paragraphical" details. Failing that, the administration would accept one- or two-year extensions. But they don't want that. Schafer added that no member of congress in their right mind would favor falling back on permanent law -- something Peterson has threatened to do, at times.

I'll let you know if Peterson gets the administration folks to dance to his tune tonight.

Posted by: mpates on 4/7/2008 at 1:02 PM | Comments (0) | Permalink

US BioHankinson about to rev up

Here's a shot from North Dakota Highway 11 at the new U.S. BioHankinson ethanol plant. A source tells me that the company's board met on March 27 gave to hear an all-systems go for a second-quarter 2008 start -- probably this month. "By the end of this month," the source said, speaking of April.

The 100-million-gallon plant will be the largest on-line, so far in the state of North Dakota. Of course U.S. Bioenergy shareholders are now shareholders in VeraSun of Brookings, S.D., which plans to will move its corporate headquarters to Sioux Falls, S.D.

Posted by: mpates on 4/5/2008 at 10:47 AM | Comments (0) | Permalink

Schafer's future plans in Washington

Secretary of Agriculture Ed Schafer, in a media scrum after giving a keynote address Sunday at the North Dakota Republican Convention in Fargo, underlined what most people around him already no.

As before, Schafer said he has no plans to run for U.S. Senate, or anything "other legislative office" after his Bush administration duties are finished in January 2009. No senate run in 2010. No interest in continuing as agriculture secretary or any other cabinet post in either a Republican or Democrat administration. "Whoever the next president is, our focus is to go out serve a short period and come back home. You never know what happens, but we're not planning on staying (past) the end of the Bush term."

Schafer says he loves being secretary of agriculture, but loved being governor too, but left at the appropriate time.

Schafer offered the expected rah-ray Republican speech. "A lot of people feel the Republican party is kind of adrift. We have an image -- rightfully so -- that we've tried to spend our way to prosperity to solve problems. Those are not the basic tenets of Republicanism and I don't think most people believe that."

On a state level, he said it's been interesting to see letters-to-the-editor from Democrats in the state, accusing the Republican state government -- run by a Republican governor and a strong majority of Republicans in the legislature -- "saying Republicans are spending too much money."

"There's something wrong with that picture," he said.

As for goals as agriculture secretary, Schafer says he wants to ...

A.) Implement the farm bill when the policy is completed.

B.) Chart the course of USDA to manage the "merge of energy and agriculture."

C.) Connectivity in rural America, to provide broad-band internet access so people can "live and work wherever they want."

Schafer said he's been discussing with the U.S. Forest Service the possibility of projects to determine the feasibility of cellular phone coverage with the use of balloons, a project that he worked to develop in the private sector. He says this kind of "temporary, immediate, inexpensive way to communicate," might be valuable in times of fire or other disaster, where conventional towers and signals may not be so available.

Posted by: mpates on 3/30/2008 at 1:19 PM | Comments (0) | Permalink